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Walt Rostow. Using
?counterfactual? arguments (supposing that things had happened differently
than they did, and examining what the consequences would have been) and a great
deal of benefit-cost analysis, Fogel argued that canals would have done the job
just as well as the ?iron horse,? which probably contributed no more than 3
percent to the growth of gross domestic product, according to his calculations.
In a second, ?Time on the Cross,? written with Stanley Engerman and
published in 1974, Fogel argued that the institution of slavery had been more
profitable than previously thought. His conclusion influenced a decade of
controversy, and he was said to be somehow endorsing slavery. Fogel later
published a four-volume study called ?Without Consent or Contract,? in which
he argued forcefully that slavery ended not because it was economically
inefficient, but because it was morally repugnant. ?I think it was Bob Fogel
who coined the term cliometrics for the application of econometric theory to
history,?6 said Harvard University professor John Meyer. It was Meyer, with a
seminal paper on the economics of slavery written with Alf Conrad in 1967, who
started the excitement over using the econometric methods that emerged from
World War II to the study history. Deeply embedded in North?s theories about
economic history is the belief that technical innovations alone are not enough
to affect economic development; institutions, such as laws, constitutions, and
norms of behavior, play a vital role. He states that ?Institutions form the
incentive structure of a society, and the political and economic institutions,
in consequence, are the underlying determinants of economic performance North
also theorized that it is the interaction among such institutions and
organizations as political parties, schools, churches, and trade unions that
shapes the evolution of an economy. This mean, if the institutional framework
rewards piracy, then piratical organizations will come into existence; and if
the institutional framework rewards productive activities, then
organizations/firms will come into existence to engage in productive activities.
In 1968 he applied this theory to the great upswing in productivity experienced
by the shipping industry in the 19th century. He showed that the boom was caused
not by technical improvements, but rather by efforts to reduce piracy and
improve emergency services. North also devoted a lot of time to using his
theories to address the question, ?Why do some countries become rich while
others remain poor? In answering this question North found out that it is
essential to understand that history repeatedly demonstrates that the evolution
of phenomena including prejudice, myths, and ideologies all play a great role in
explaining societies and change. Towards the end of North?s Study, he merge
towards the theory that the past is an ideal testing ground for hypotheses about
economics and the various forces that propel economic development. He also
specifically stated that ?Economic history is about the performance of
economies through time,?7 which he stated in his Nobel Peace Prize lecture.
The Game Theory and the theory of Economic Development made an impact on the
American society that allowed the society to improve in sensibility. Though Nash
and North was the main source in creating the theories, the other three?s
input helped allow the theories to be of more meaning to the society. These two
theories has and will continue to influence other perceptions of the American
economy because society learn and improve from each other, but the basis will
always remain. Therefore, these five recipients will always remain and be
remembered as being part of America?s Economic Science history.
Bibliography
Business Week, Published, 1994 Harsanyi, John C., Harsanyi Autobiographical
Essay Harsanyi, John C., Papers in Game Theory, Published, 1982 New York Times,
Published, 1993 Nash, John, Essays on Game Theory, Published, 1997 North,
Douglass C., Structure and Change in Economic History, Published 1976 The Boston
Globe, Published 1994.
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